Bioinformatics Seminar - Calibrated prediction intervals for polygenic scores across diverse contexts

Polygenic scores (PGS) have emerged as the tool of choice for genomic prediction in a wide range of fields from agriculture to personalized medicine. We analyze data from two large biobanks in the US (All of Us) and the UK (UK Biobank) to find widespread variability in PGS performance across contexts. Many contexts, including age, sex, and income, impact PGS accuracies with similar magnitudes as genetic ancestry. PGSs trained in single versus multi-ancestry cohorts show similar context-specificity in their accuracies. We introduce trait prediction intervals that are allowed to vary across contexts as a principled approach to account for context-specific PGS accuracy in genomic prediction. We show that prediction intervals need to be adjusted for all considered traits ranging from 10% for diastolic blood pressure to 80% for waist circumference.

Zoom Link: https://mit.zoom.us/j/93513735220